Polish Zloty: Scope for weakness against Euro as NBP underwhelms – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky reports that the National Bank of Poland left rates at 3.75% and provided limited new guidance, shifting focus to Governor Glapinski’s press conference. With markets already pricing around 85bp of tightening, ING sees a high bar for a hawkish surprise. They expect some easing in rate expectations and a rise in EUR/PLN, potentially back above 4.320, helped by record gas prices.

NBP stance leaves zloty vulnerable

"As expected, the National Bank of Poland kept rates unchanged at 3.75% yesterday. The statement offered little new guidance, leaving attention on Governor Adam Glapinski’s press conference today at 3pm local time."

"We expect a somewhat more hawkish tone than in July, reflecting higher inflation and a firmer outlook. However, with markets pricing in around 85bp of tightening, the bar for a hawkish surprise is high."

"We therefore see scope for some easing in rate expectations and a rise in EUR/PLN, also supported by record gas prices, potentially taking the pair back above 4.320."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)