US Dollar: Fiscal prudence could restore confidence - Rabobank

Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses how the Democrat sweep in Congress initially weighed on the Dollar and Nasdaq futures, but both quickly pared losses. Foley highlights that expectations of tighter fiscal policy could lower US yields and be short-term negative for the USD, yet improved budget prudence may ultimately bolster the greenback’s credibility and safe-haven status.

Fiscal prudence and Dollar credibility

"The market had also anticipated that Democrat control of Congress could suggest fewer fiscal giveaways and therefore less inflation. This suggests lower yields on treasuries which have negative implications for the USD. The DXY dollar index, however, has already started to reverse some of its initial losses."

"The possibility of fiscal prudence has clear implications for yields, Fed policy and the USD. On first take, these are USD negative. However, the medium-term outlook is far more nuanced."

"Since Trump’s tariff announcement in April 2025, the market has periodically debated whether the US treasury market is closer to losing its ‘exorbitant privilege’."

"Over the past year and a half, this has sporadically thrown up a debate about potential USD debasement. It follows that a more prudent budget policy would negate some of these fears. This suggests that the market’s initial conclusion regarding the negative implications for the USD from more prudent fiscal policy post-election, can be challenged."

"In essence more fiscal prudence, while USD negative in the short-term, is likely to positively impact the credibility of the greenback and its safe haven character over the long-term."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)